{"id":1378,"date":"2026-01-11T00:58:43","date_gmt":"2026-01-10T21:58:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/republicpalestine.com\/en\/?p=1378"},"modified":"2026-01-11T01:30:35","modified_gmt":"2026-01-10T22:30:35","slug":"the-region-on-the-brink-of-an-existential-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/republicpalestine.com\/en\/?p=1378","title":{"rendered":"The Region on the Brink of an Existential War"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

From Aleppo to Tehran: Mikhail Awad\u2019s Perspective<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Republic of Palestine<\/a> \u2013 Political Affairs Redaction<\/strong><\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n
Read the article in Spanish<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Read the article in Arabic<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a recently published analysis, political analyst Mikhail Awad<\/a> presents a comprehensive reading of regional transformations in the Middle East, asserting that the region is living through an unprecedented historical moment\u2014one that goes beyond traditional crises and moves toward an open-ended conflict with multiple possible outcomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Awad argues that the world is no longer governed by stable rules or balanced power equations, but has instead become captive to unilateral wills and overt hegemonic ambitions, led by the United States in their most explicit form during the Trump era.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A World Without Rules: From Gaza to Greenland<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
The analyst notes that the U.S. administration under Donald Trump treats geopolitics as private property open to acquisition. From discussions about appointing a \u201cgovernor for Gaza,\u201d to controlling oil and political life in Venezuela, and openly speaking of seizing Greenland \u201cby any means,\u201d an unmasked imperial mindset is clearly on display.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Within this context, Awad adds, U.S. threats against Iran\u2014however dangerous they may appear\u2014are not aimed at launching a ground war, but rather constitute a policy of \u201cmaximum pressure\u201d designed to push targeted states toward fragmentation, internal exhaustion, and chaos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Aleppo: Fragmentation Instead of Resolution<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Awad stresses that what occurred in Aleppo was not an isolated event, but the outcome of regional and international understandings involving the United States, Turkey, and \u201cIsrael.\u201d Local authorities, he argues, served merely as implementers, while real decisions were made in major global capitals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The broader objective, he explains, was not the overthrow of a specific government, but the dismantling of Syria\u2019s geography into fragmented identities and administrative entities\u2014consistent with long-standing projects that reject strong, unified states in the Levant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Kurdish Factor: From Syria to Iran<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Awad highlights the Kurdish role as a functional tool within broader geopolitical projects, noting that Kurdish military structures in Syria\u2014particularly the SDF\u2014did not operate as protective social forces, but rather as fronts serving U.S. and Atlantic objectives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He also points to the timing between developments in Aleppo and armed movements by Kurdish factions inside Iran, suggesting a deliberate attempt to transfer the conflict into Iranian territory and drain Tehran from within, in a manner similar to what previously occurred in Syria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Iran: A System Resistant to Collapse<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
The analyst emphasizes that toppling the Iranian system is far from easy. Iran\u2019s political structure, he explains, is built around \u201ctwo states within one state\u201d: the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guard on one side, and a civilian state with rotating reformist and conservative governments on the other.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As a result, no popular movement\u2014regardless of its scale\u2014can bring down the system without a vertical split within the core of power itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Dilemma of Strategic Patience<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Awad criticizes Iran\u2019s strategy of \u201cstrategic patience\u201d and its reliance on managing conflict through external allies. He argues that this approach has resulted in tangible losses in key arenas such as Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, while adversaries have openly declared an existential war. In such wars, he contends, offense becomes the most effective form of defense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Power and Deterrence Cards<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
According to Awad, Iran possesses major deterrent assets, ranging from its ability to close the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb, to its deep influence in Iraq\u2014where any organized popular and religious mobilization could dramatically alter the U.S. presence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The strategic choice, he concludes, lies in shifting from a defensive posture to political and military initiative against U.S. and Israeli interventions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Conclusion: A Battle of Wills<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Mikhail Awad concludes that the region stands on the threshold of a genuine existential war\u2014a confrontation between projects of fragmentation and domination on one side, and forces that still retain elements of resilience and deterrence on the other.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In such a war, there is no room for neutrality: either victory imposes its equation, or defeat removes actors from history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He concludes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n
\u201cToday, the question is not how much power exists, but which mindset is capable of using it at the right moment.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
From Aleppo to Tehran: Mikhail Awad\u2019s Perspective Read the article in Spanish Read the article in Arabic In a recently published analysis, political analyst Mikhail Awad presents a comprehensive reading of regional transformations in the Middle East, asserting that the region is living through an unprecedented historical moment\u2014one that goes beyond traditional crises and moves toward an open-ended conflict with multiple possible outcomes. Awad argues that the world is no longer governed by stable rules or balanced power equations, but has instead become captive to unilateral wills and overt hegemonic ambitions, led by the United States in their most explicit form during the Trump era. A World Without Rules: From Gaza to Greenland The analyst notes that the U.S. administration under Donald Trump treats geopolitics as private property open to acquisition. From discussions about appointing a \u201cgovernor for Gaza,\u201d to controlling oil and political life in Venezuela, and openly speaking of seizing Greenland \u201cby any means,\u201d an unmasked imperial mindset is clearly on display. Within this context, Awad adds, U.S. threats against Iran\u2014however dangerous they may appear\u2014are not aimed at launching a ground war, but rather constitute a policy of \u201cmaximum pressure\u201d designed to push targeted states toward fragmentation, internal …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1385,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_eb_attr":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1378","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion-2"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe Region on the Brink of an Existential War - Republic Palestine<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/republicpalestine.com\/en\/?p=1378\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Region on the Brink of an Existential War\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"From Aleppo to Tehran: Mikhail Awad\u2019s Perspective Read the article in Spanish Read the article in Arabic In a recently published analysis, political analyst Mikhail Awad presents a comprehensive reading of regional transformations in the Middle East, asserting that the region is living through an unprecedented historical moment\u2014one that goes beyond traditional crises and moves toward an open-ended conflict with multiple possible outcomes. Awad argues that the world is no longer governed by stable rules or balanced power equations, but has instead become captive to unilateral wills and overt hegemonic ambitions, led by the United States in their most explicit form during the Trump era. A World Without Rules: From Gaza to Greenland The analyst notes that the U.S. administration under Donald Trump treats geopolitics as private property open to acquisition. From discussions about appointing a \u201cgovernor for Gaza,\u201d to controlling oil and political life in Venezuela, and openly speaking of seizing Greenland \u201cby any means,\u201d an unmasked imperial mindset is clearly on display. Within this context, Awad adds, U.S. threats against Iran\u2014however dangerous they may appear\u2014are not aimed at launching a ground war, but rather constitute a policy of \u201cmaximum pressure\u201d designed to push targeted states toward fragmentation, internal …\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/republicpalestine.com\/en\/?p=1378\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Republic Palestine\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-01-10T21:58:43+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-01-10T22:30:35+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/republicpalestine.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/01\/IMG_1159.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2400\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1350\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"RepublicofPalestine\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"RepublicofPalestine\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/republicpalestine.com\/en\/?p=1378\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/republicpalestine.com\/en\/?p=1378\",\"name\":\"The Region on the Brink of an Existential War - 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